Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Alexander M.K. Radojcic • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

July 12, 2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.

The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.

Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.

As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.

Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.

In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.

In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.

Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report

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Alexander M.K. Radojcic

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License #M21001839

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Fell Behind on a Payment? Don’t Panic—Here’s What to Do

By Alexander M.K. Radojcic • September 23, 2026

Missed a Credit Card or Line of Credit Payment? Here’s What to Do If you’ve missed a payment on a credit card or line of credit and you’re worried about how it might affect your credit—or your future mortgage—this is for you. First things first: 👉 If you currently have an overdue balance, log in and make the minimum payment now. Seriously. Do that first. Everything else can wait. If You’re Only a Few Days Late Here’s the good news: Credit bureaus don’t record late payments until they reach 30 days past due. So if you missed a due date by a few days and paid it as soon as you noticed, it typically won’t show up on your credit report as a late payment—as long as you’re under the 30-day mark. That said, it never hurts to double-check. You can call your credit card company, explain what happened, and confirm the account is back in good standing. If you normally pay on time, they may even reverse the interest charged. It doesn’t hurt to ask. If You’re 30, 60, or 90 Days Behind If payments have gone past 30 days, your credit has likely been impacted—but the situation is still fixable. The most important step is to: Bring all accounts current as soon as possible Make at least the minimum payment on every account The faster you catch up, the more you limit the damage. Ignoring missed payments only makes things worse. If Cash Flow Is Tight If you’re struggling to make payments, communication matters. Contact your lender and keep them informed—even if you can’t pay right away. Lenders are far more willing to work with you when you’re transparent. What hurts your credit most is silence . If lenders don’t hear from you after repeated missed payments, they may write the balance off as bad debt and send it to collections. Collections can significantly impact your credit and stay on your report for years. How This Affects Mortgage Qualification Repeated missed payments can make qualifying for a mortgage more difficult—but timing matters. Once you’re back to making regular, on-time payments: Your credit can improve over time The impact of past mistakes becomes less significant If you’re planning to buy a home in the next couple of years, addressing credit issues early gives you far more options later. Final Thoughts Missing a payment doesn’t mean you’re “bad with money,” and it doesn’t mean homeownership is off the table. What matters most is how quickly you respond and how consistent you are going forward . If you’d like help reviewing your credit report or understanding where you stand from a mortgage perspective, feel free to connect. I’d be happy to walk through it with you and help you create a clear path forward.

How to Finance Renovations When Buying a Home in Canada

By Alexander M.K. Radojcic • September 16, 2026

Can’t Find the Right Home After You’re Pre-Approved? There’s Another Option The best place to start any home purchase is with a mortgage pre-approval. It gives you clarity around your budget and lets you shop with confidence. But what happens when you’ve been pre-approved, you know where you want to live—and nothing suitable fits your price range? This is a common challenge, especially for first-time homebuyers. Before buyer fatigue sets in, it may be worth considering a different approach: buying a home that needs work and financing the renovations as part of your mortgage . What Is a Purchase Plus Improvements Mortgage? A purchase plus improvements program allows you to buy a property and include the cost of approved renovations directly in your mortgage. This can be a great solution if: You can’t find a move-in-ready home within budget You’re open to renovations You want to customize the home from the start It opens up more options and can help you get into a location or property that would otherwise be out of reach. How the Process Works While the idea is straightforward, the process itself is structured and requires planning. Here’s a high-level overview: Renovation quotes are required upfront You’ll need detailed quotes for the work you want completed before final mortgage approval. Renovations must add value The lender must be satisfied that the improvements will increase the property’s value accordingly. Funds are reimbursed, not advanced You pay for the renovations initially. Once the work is completed and verified by an appraiser, the lender reimburses you and adds the cost to your mortgage. With the right guidance, this process is very manageable—but it’s important to understand the steps before committing. Is This Program Right for You? Purchase plus improvements isn’t for everyone. Buying a home is already a big undertaking, and adding renovations can increase stress—especially if timelines, budgets, or contractors become challenging. That said, if you’re financially prepared and like the idea of shaping the home to fit your needs, this program can be an excellent way to get more value and flexibility from your purchase. Final Thoughts If you’re struggling to find the right home after being pre-approved, you may not need to lower your expectations—you may just need a different strategy. If you’d like to explore whether a purchase plus improvements mortgage makes sense for you, feel free to connect. I’d be happy to walk you through the process and outline exactly what this option would look like in your situation.